politics

kalam fel bolitika

The postpone elections argument is similar to

Egypt is going to introduce nationwide cricket clubs. They are going to postpone all games until the teams are strong enough. Fans are expected to back clubs before they play any game. Before seeing how exciting the game is or which team has the better players.

That's why expecting us to back political parties and join them before they perform in parliament is rubbish.

Post-Jan25 in Minya

Since I am currently unemployed and wasting my time following the thousand or so tweets that appear every hour on my twitter account. I decided to spend time with my father getting paperwork related to several court cases done. These cases happen to be in Minya and they are related to few areas of land he refuses to give up.

The first post-Jan25 change noticeable is that in almost all villages you can see murals and graffiti honouring the martyrs and the youth of the revolution. The other thing, are the remains of illegal building on agricultural land, appearing as heap of broken down fresh white bricks in the middle of the green areas.

In the city of Minya, there are more visible signs of the state we are in. Empty hotels, intricate murals in English and Arabic about freedom, the martyrs and Egypt in all colours, army in front of government buildings, paid ads about the revolution asking people to say no to vandalism and one of the main squares in the city renamed from Midan Suzan Mubarak to Midan Shohada2(martyrs) 25 Jan. Probably renamed by the same governor who earlier renamed half of the city to Suzan Mubarak. Minya is the birthplace of the former first lady.

Otherwise, Minya didn't change much and what we've lived through in the past 3 months was mostly watched on TV. Except perhaps on the Jan 28th, I saw an armoured CSF vehicle with hundreds of tiny dents on it's body from stone throwing. Interestingly, the constant threat of thug attacks was very limited or unfelt.

What was more interesting is spending an afternoon discussing politics with people in the village of Rehana. Here is a quick summary in bullet points:

1. Village men, some illiterate, understand politics more than people in Cairo expect them to be.

2. Anyone affiliated to NDP and surprisingly the Muslim Brotherhood now have very little popularity.

Arab Revolutions Board Game

Earlier I said:

I want an Arab revolutions board game.less than a minute ago via web

No votes to university graduates

graph showing a positive correlation 0.78 between percentage of no votes in each governerate to the percentage of university graduates in each governerate

This chart means that the governerate with a higher percentage of university graduates is more likely to vote no in the last referendum.

You can access referendum results here.

UPDATE: I uploaded an excel file with data from referendum and numbers of university graduates from CAPMAS. The data from CAPMAS is from 2006.

This is just a dump of one correlation found. I am trying to look for other interesting bits in this data.

Professor Tarek Masoud found a weaker correlation "between illiteracy and the likelihood that people voted yes on the constitutional referendum."

Data from referendum will draw a new map of Egypt

It doesn't matter the outcome of the referendum. What matters is the detailed data that will come out. Given that fraud seems to be limited, the data may be very valuable.


Egypt at night from space

I think we can safely assume that most people who voted Yes were more convinced with ideas that are quite separate from the ideas of the No camp.

It's now common knowledge that the majority of the people who said Yes were basically people who were convinced by the arguments of the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists, remnants of the NDP, pro-stability and lets-just-get-the-country-back-to-normal-because-we-don't-really-know-anything mindset and for sure people who read the amendments and think they are good enough.

While the No people are mostly people who don't like the Muslim Brotherhood, or afraid of them, people who think that the amendments are not enough and aspire for a more radical change even if the cost a longer interim period. In short, a good percentage of people who were active as opposition on the ground since January 25 and on Facebook and Twitter.

I hope you got the idea. That these group are somehow sort of different to each other.

Assuming that most people did vote near to their homes. Which is another assumption but I doubt that there was a massive shuffle in the distribution of people across districts or perhaps governerates to let us say that this assumption is totally incorrect.

I think the detailed vote data, that will tell us the number of people who said Yes than No in each district, are incredibly important for presidential candidates and political parties. But let's focus on presidential candidates first.

Before pointing fingers

Two deplorable acts of violence occurred in the past two or three days against a priest who was stabbed to death in Assiut and a house owned by a Bahaai family was set alight in Sohag. The details of both events are still not known, yet people started to point blame.

This time blame is pointed to state security, Mubarak or his remaining actors. Although, this is a legitimate hypothesis and needs to be taken into account, there is still no evidence, not even a story describing what allegedly happened. The reason people think that SS or Mubarak may be responsible is the fear that he may be trying to use the dirty card of sectarianism to divide people. And to make the people worried the most about this revolution, Coptic Christians, react against it.

As far as I understand they are worried that the Muslim majority population will rally around Muslim Brotherhood or other groups that endorses an Islamic ideology and force it upon them. Again, a very legitimate concern that worries me too.

Christian and a Muslim woman in full face veil protesting while a police station near by was shooting live ammunition on protesters by Sarah Carr, on Flickr

A Christian woman and Muslim one in full face veil protesting while a police station near by was shooting live ammunition on protesters on the 28th of January.Photo by Sarah Carr

Torture and police, what now?

AlJazeera English Inside Story aired a 25 minutes interview with psychiatrist Dr. Ahmed Okasha, Hisham Safie Eldin a former police officer and Wael Omar a film maker about torture and the relationship between people and the police.

The program showed some footage of police officers and policemen protesting in the past few days. But didn't interview anyone from El Nadim centre for rehabilitation of victims of torture, which is the only centre in Egypt that worked in psychological and medical rehabilitation of victims of torture and police violence, documented incidents of torture through tens of publications and provides legal aid n(I worked there for 3 years).

Not even anyone from any human rights organisation who may have worked with victims of torture was interviewed.

This made the program overlook many aspects of why torture is systematic in the country and didn't mention any of the reports of torture in the hands of the military police that are being reported in the past few weeks.

Dr. Okasha attributed the problems to lack of trust between people and the police due to the previous practices of the police in the past. And that some officers enjoyed the torture as a form of sadism. He also went on saying that torture is enjoyable to torturers because of opiates released in the brain and so on.